- Email: [email protected]
Fifth E.C.M.R.A. Conference
CONFERENCE Fifth E. C. M. R. A. Conference
The fifth conference of the European Chemical Marketing Research Association (EVAF Chemical Section) was held in Vienna from September 20th to 22nd 1971. This is the second time that a capital on the Danube has been used for an E.C.M.R.A. conference, the first occasion being last October when the Association met in Budapest. The Vienna conference took place in the Palais Auersperg which was originally built at the beginning of the 18th century, but has been frequently altered since then. Most of the decoration at the Palais Auersperg dates from the 19th century and the rooms open to the Association made a striking contrast with the modern facilities of the Amsterdam and Budapest hotels where we met last year. The theme of the conference was “Chemical Markets Affected by the Environment” and there were fourteen full papers presented in the four halfday sessions. The opening event was a reception by the municipality of Vienna at which Herr Stadrat Pfoch welcomed the delegates and their guests. This reception was no token occasion. A four-course lunch was provided which proved to be an excellent introduction to Viennese hospitality. The lunch was held in the Rathaus which is close to the world famous Ringstrasse where so many of Vienna’s, and Austria’s, most important buildings are sited. Most delegates also took the opportunity later that day to enjoy a Heurigen evening at Grinzing which is part of the wine growing area at the foot of the Vienna woods. Here they were able to sample the “Heuriger” wine which is the term used by the Austrians for their latest vintage. The conference dinner was held on September 21st at the Restaurant Cobenzl on the edge of the Vienna woods and from this vantage point it was possible to view the whole of Vienna. During this dinner A. L. Waddams (BP Chemicals International Limited) announced his retirement from the Chairmanship of E.C.M.R.A. and added that the EVAF Council had ratified the E.C.M.R.A. recommendation that his successor should be Marc Niel (Naphtachimie). We would like to record here our heartfelt thanks for the considerable effort which Lawrie Waddams has put into the formation and running I&. Mark. Manage.,
3 (1972)
REPORTS
of E.C.M.R.A. and at the same time wish Marc Niel every good fortune as the new Chairman of our Association. There was, of course, much more to be seen in Vienna and with characteristic market researchers’ curiosity many delegates continued their tours of Vienna into the early hours of the morning. To return to the formal aspect of the meeting, the papers presented at the conference are briefly reviewed below. In his introduction to the opening session of the conference A. L. Waddams emphasized that we live in a chemical environment. He said that it would be quite wrong to regard chemicals in any general sense as problem materials and that we can be proud of the contributions our industry has made to the welfare of mankind. There are many people anxious to create the impression that the chemical industry is rather an ogre concentrating its efforts on interfering with nature and adulterating natural products. But he said that any such idea is very far from the truth and that where it is honestly held it stems from a misconception of the environment we live in. He did, however, accept that in the vast spread of activities with which the chemical industry is concerned, some developments will have thrown up a small proportion of problem areas which should not be ignored. He hoped that this conference would play a part in arriving at effective solutions to these problems. Whilst the theme of the conference was “The Environment” the main subject of the papers varied considerably. Chemicals as food additives were discussed by Dr. F. Grundschober (International Organisation of the Flavour Industry, Geneva) and by F. K. Johnson (Pfizer Limited, Sandwich, U.K.). Dr. Grundschober discussed trends in legislation affecting food additives and Mr. Johnson presented a convincing case for food additives. On the related subject of agrochemicals I. D. Burgess (Ciba-Geigy, Basle) presented a paper entitled “Agrochemicals-Planning for Sensitive Markets” in which he discussed a method of environmental forecasting utilised in the Corporate Development Department of Ciba-Geigy. The controversal topic of the effect of lead in gasoline was tackled by P. J. Placito (Burmah Oil, London) and M. J. Bennett (Chem Systems Inter363
national Inc., London). Both of these speakers considered the prospects for unleaded gasoline. Mr. Placito dealt with the impact of such unleaded fuels on petroleum producers, the potential threat by lead pollution to health and actual and impending legislation against the use of lead in gasoline. Mr. Bennett discussed the likely effect on the European chemical industry in the second half of the 1970’s. In this paper he considered the supply and price of naphtha, aromatics, olefins and gasoline additives. He also touched on the possible use of catalysts in exhaust after-burners and in plant processes to produce alternate octane boosting components. Another outlet for chemicals in a common pollution problem, water treatment, was also discussed at this meeting. Dr. C. H. Kline (Charles H. Kline & Co., Fairfield, New Jersey) discussed the American market for chemicals in water treatment and pollution control. He considered both industrial and municipal water treatment and reviewed the variety of channels through which water treatment chemicals reach the ultimate consumer. J. F. G. Harris (Laporte Industries Limited, Widnes) presented a paper in which he not only considered the markets for water treatment chemicals in the U.K., but also reviewed the organisation and supply of water in England and Wales. He also dealt with the treatment of sewage and industrial effluent. The use of polymeric flocculating agents in sewage treatment in Europe was covered by G. Loeber (Hercules N.V., The Hague). Questions on surfactants were dealt with by two speakers from France. R. Xueref (SNPA, Paris) discussed the effect that environment constraints can have on anionic surfactants in the Western countries. He emphasized that these constraints apply not only to existing products but more especially to new products and that they ought to be taken into account while research is being carried out. Surfactant producers ought to take the trouble to improve their products even if Governments do not request them to do so and even if water purification anits become more numerous and more efficient. P. Gilles (Melle-Bezons, Paris) discussed the trends of nonionic surfactants in the 1970’s. He concluded that the future for synthetic detergents is not in question, but it is probable that still more new products will appear in the course of the next decade and will take a progressively bigger share of the market. As the conference was held in Vienna the delegates 364
had an opportunity to learn from B. Rieger (Danubia Olefinwerke, Vienna) about the chemicals which are obtained from petroleum in Austria. Also located in Vienna is the Secretariat of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and A. Brzozowski from this office discussed the need for export orientation for manufacturing industries in developing countries. Mr. Brzozowski put particular stress on the chemical industries. Complementary to this paper E. G. Hancock (Robert S. First Inc., New York and Brussels) reviewed the problems of researching chemical markets in developing countries. Although they could hardly be regarded as problem materials, the chlorinated solvents trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene were the subject of the final paper given by G. Harris (PPG Industries (Europe) S.p.A., Rome). Mr. Harris gave a comprehensive paper in which he considered the outlets for these solvents, the methods by which they are produced and the possible effect of alternative solvents such as methyl chloroform on the demand for trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene. The proceedings of the conference including the full texts of all the papers, the subsequent discussion and a list of the delegates will be published in book form. This book will be available during January 1972 when it can be obtained from the Editor of the E.C.M.R.A. Proceedings Dr. N. A. Perkins (c/o BP Chemicals International Limited, Devonshire House, Piccadilly, London, WlX 6AY). The price of the book will be El.80 for EVAF members and 22.60 for non-members. The delegates at the conference came from 16 different countries, 12 West European plus Canada, Hungary, U.S.A. and Yugoslavia. The numbers representing each country were in fair proportion to the size of their chemical industry, although as usual the largest group came from the U.K. A particularly welcome feature is the rising proportion of delegates coming from the U.S.A. and here we owe a debt to the co-ordinating activities of the C.M.R.A. representative Mr. John Fosdick. Essentially, however, this was a European occasion and the informal discussions were frequently in French, German or other European languages. The sixth E.C.M.R.A. conference will be held in Copenhagen on October 9th to 11th 1972. The programme is still at an early stage of development but there will probably be no single theme. Subjects which we expect to be covered will include Scandinavian Chemical Markets, the Effect on the European Ind. Mark. Manage.,
3 (1972)
Chemical Industry of the Enlarged Common Market and Competition between Plastics and Paper. Operational Research Annual Conference
Society,
London,
This year’s annual conference of the Operational Research Society, London, was held during the three days, Monday-Wednesday, 20th to 22nd September in the pleasant surroundings of the University of Lancaster at Bailrigg, Lancaster. Participants were accommodated mainly in study bedrooms in the Bowland, Cartmel and County colleges of the University. The University campus seemed to be well suited to the accommodation of a conference of this kind; the study bedrooms were reasonably comfortable, feeding arrangements were satisfactory and a congenial bar was situated in each college. The plenary sessions of the conference were adequately accommodated in the Great Hall and there was no shortage of lecture theatres and seminar rooms for the five parallel sessions of the conference proper. Banking and shopping facilities were also available on the campus within easy reach of the conference facilities. About 350 participants attended the conference, these came mainly from the United Kingdom but it was a pleasure to find a sprinkling of participants from other countries, notably from the following European countries, Belgium, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Roumania, Sweden, Switzerland, and W. Germany and further afield from Australia, Canada, Israel, South Africa and the U.S.A. After welcoming the participants, the conference Chairman, Dr. P. J. Coen, introduced the opening speaker Prof. R. W. Revans (Stichting IndustrieUniversiteit, Belgium) who made the opening address “The Anatomy of Achievement” a description of a project in which Belgian industry and universities are cooperating to improve the efficiency of management. The main papers of the conference were arranged in four parallel sessions labelled A, B, C and J. The papers in session J were contributed and presented by the younger members of the Society. Space will not permit the listing of all the papers presented, but sets of the precirculated papers are available from the OR Society and will be published together with notes on the discussion in the special Conference issue of OR Quarterly as in the previous year. “Some Observations Regarding the Managerial Role” by J. C. Bex described an interesting study based on the recording of the Id.
Mark.
Manq~e.,
3 (1972)
verbal activity of a manager engaged in his role. The evidence appears to destroy the traditional image of a manager as a decision maker. One was tempted to question some of the findings on the grounds that the manager’s verbal activity did not necessarily reflect his mental activity. However the paper generated some interesting discussion. Some of the papers in Session A2 on Urgency of Decision were memorable for various reasons. “Judgement Modelling in an Environment of Urgency” by D. R. Kaye was well presented and was hailed by many as a novel approach to the problem. The writer felt that such a reception was not justified since it was little more than cooperative empirical model building. “The Decision Tree as a Communication Medium” by J. F. Polhill was a professional but facile presentation of a trivial study and was memorable on that score. The more weighty for the Quick and Dirty paper “An Apologia Exercise and a General Description of an Application in the Manpower Planning Field” by R. F. A. Hopes and Miss E. M. Hofman was noteworthy for the development of a model designed to identify the effects of various policy decisions on the future state of the U.K. Civil Service. The fact that this kind of work is being undertaken by a Government Department is comforting; of even more interest to Government employees was the fact that the Civil Service Department was not contemplating the use of such a model to determine the personal future of Civil Servants. One of the best papers presented, although not heard by the writer, was “Total Planning: A Review of Concepts and Problems” by M. F. Cantley. This paper reviews the theory of adaptive forecasting models and their use for planning purposes. A feature of the conference which was valuable, were the discussion sessions held on the afternoon of the first day in separate rooms. The subjects to be discussed were wide ranging and often introspective for example “What Contribution Can OR Make to Financial Planning?” “Can the Country Afford to Combat Pollution?” One of the discussions became a post mortem on the third London Airport Study, the theme for discussion being “CostBenefit Analysis and Politics Do Not Mix.” Two of the Study Groups of the OR Society organized very lively sessions. These were the R & D Study Group and the Health and Welfare Study Group. The meetings of the latter over-ran the time allotted and such was the interest that it was continued voluntarily up to 18.30. 365
Two interesting papers were presented in the session on Computer Models (C4). “A Company Model for a Computer Bureau” by D. J. Flower and D. Capron was well delivered and a competent piece of work. “Computer Simulation in Education Planning by Dr. I. Vaduva (University of Bucharest) was of interest because of the insight it gave on the planning process in a communist state. His model could be criticised because it sought to simulate the flow of children through the entire educational system, the output of this model feeding into the overall employment plan, yet it ignored the intelligence level of the children entering the model. It relied on the transfer functions between educational levels in the system to measure this factor indirectly, but since these could be regarded as an
366
expression of Official policy the model became self fulfilling. Because the conference refectory would not permit all participants to be seated in one room for the conference dinner, a novel solution to the problem of after dinner speeches was developed. These were made during the reception held in the Great Hall before the dinner. The dinner was otherwise a success except that participants were left to serve themselves in much the same way as during other conference meals. The wine was served with more generosity than was noted at past conferences of the Society and contributed to a more generous flow of conversation. P. MARSDEN
Ind. Mark.
Manage.,
3 (1972)
The fifth conference of the European Chemical Marketing Research Association (EVAF Chemical Section) was held in Vienna from September 20th to 22nd 1971. This is the second time that a capital on the Danube has been used for an E.C.M.R.A. conference, the first occasion being last October when the Association met in Budapest. The Vienna conference took place in the Palais Auersperg which was originally built at the beginning of the 18th century, but has been frequently altered since then. Most of the decoration at the Palais Auersperg dates from the 19th century and the rooms open to the Association made a striking contrast with the modern facilities of the Amsterdam and Budapest hotels where we met last year. The theme of the conference was “Chemical Markets Affected by the Environment” and there were fourteen full papers presented in the four halfday sessions. The opening event was a reception by the municipality of Vienna at which Herr Stadrat Pfoch welcomed the delegates and their guests. This reception was no token occasion. A four-course lunch was provided which proved to be an excellent introduction to Viennese hospitality. The lunch was held in the Rathaus which is close to the world famous Ringstrasse where so many of Vienna’s, and Austria’s, most important buildings are sited. Most delegates also took the opportunity later that day to enjoy a Heurigen evening at Grinzing which is part of the wine growing area at the foot of the Vienna woods. Here they were able to sample the “Heuriger” wine which is the term used by the Austrians for their latest vintage. The conference dinner was held on September 21st at the Restaurant Cobenzl on the edge of the Vienna woods and from this vantage point it was possible to view the whole of Vienna. During this dinner A. L. Waddams (BP Chemicals International Limited) announced his retirement from the Chairmanship of E.C.M.R.A. and added that the EVAF Council had ratified the E.C.M.R.A. recommendation that his successor should be Marc Niel (Naphtachimie). We would like to record here our heartfelt thanks for the considerable effort which Lawrie Waddams has put into the formation and running I&. Mark. Manage.,
3 (1972)
REPORTS
of E.C.M.R.A. and at the same time wish Marc Niel every good fortune as the new Chairman of our Association. There was, of course, much more to be seen in Vienna and with characteristic market researchers’ curiosity many delegates continued their tours of Vienna into the early hours of the morning. To return to the formal aspect of the meeting, the papers presented at the conference are briefly reviewed below. In his introduction to the opening session of the conference A. L. Waddams emphasized that we live in a chemical environment. He said that it would be quite wrong to regard chemicals in any general sense as problem materials and that we can be proud of the contributions our industry has made to the welfare of mankind. There are many people anxious to create the impression that the chemical industry is rather an ogre concentrating its efforts on interfering with nature and adulterating natural products. But he said that any such idea is very far from the truth and that where it is honestly held it stems from a misconception of the environment we live in. He did, however, accept that in the vast spread of activities with which the chemical industry is concerned, some developments will have thrown up a small proportion of problem areas which should not be ignored. He hoped that this conference would play a part in arriving at effective solutions to these problems. Whilst the theme of the conference was “The Environment” the main subject of the papers varied considerably. Chemicals as food additives were discussed by Dr. F. Grundschober (International Organisation of the Flavour Industry, Geneva) and by F. K. Johnson (Pfizer Limited, Sandwich, U.K.). Dr. Grundschober discussed trends in legislation affecting food additives and Mr. Johnson presented a convincing case for food additives. On the related subject of agrochemicals I. D. Burgess (Ciba-Geigy, Basle) presented a paper entitled “Agrochemicals-Planning for Sensitive Markets” in which he discussed a method of environmental forecasting utilised in the Corporate Development Department of Ciba-Geigy. The controversal topic of the effect of lead in gasoline was tackled by P. J. Placito (Burmah Oil, London) and M. J. Bennett (Chem Systems Inter363
national Inc., London). Both of these speakers considered the prospects for unleaded gasoline. Mr. Placito dealt with the impact of such unleaded fuels on petroleum producers, the potential threat by lead pollution to health and actual and impending legislation against the use of lead in gasoline. Mr. Bennett discussed the likely effect on the European chemical industry in the second half of the 1970’s. In this paper he considered the supply and price of naphtha, aromatics, olefins and gasoline additives. He also touched on the possible use of catalysts in exhaust after-burners and in plant processes to produce alternate octane boosting components. Another outlet for chemicals in a common pollution problem, water treatment, was also discussed at this meeting. Dr. C. H. Kline (Charles H. Kline & Co., Fairfield, New Jersey) discussed the American market for chemicals in water treatment and pollution control. He considered both industrial and municipal water treatment and reviewed the variety of channels through which water treatment chemicals reach the ultimate consumer. J. F. G. Harris (Laporte Industries Limited, Widnes) presented a paper in which he not only considered the markets for water treatment chemicals in the U.K., but also reviewed the organisation and supply of water in England and Wales. He also dealt with the treatment of sewage and industrial effluent. The use of polymeric flocculating agents in sewage treatment in Europe was covered by G. Loeber (Hercules N.V., The Hague). Questions on surfactants were dealt with by two speakers from France. R. Xueref (SNPA, Paris) discussed the effect that environment constraints can have on anionic surfactants in the Western countries. He emphasized that these constraints apply not only to existing products but more especially to new products and that they ought to be taken into account while research is being carried out. Surfactant producers ought to take the trouble to improve their products even if Governments do not request them to do so and even if water purification anits become more numerous and more efficient. P. Gilles (Melle-Bezons, Paris) discussed the trends of nonionic surfactants in the 1970’s. He concluded that the future for synthetic detergents is not in question, but it is probable that still more new products will appear in the course of the next decade and will take a progressively bigger share of the market. As the conference was held in Vienna the delegates 364
had an opportunity to learn from B. Rieger (Danubia Olefinwerke, Vienna) about the chemicals which are obtained from petroleum in Austria. Also located in Vienna is the Secretariat of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and A. Brzozowski from this office discussed the need for export orientation for manufacturing industries in developing countries. Mr. Brzozowski put particular stress on the chemical industries. Complementary to this paper E. G. Hancock (Robert S. First Inc., New York and Brussels) reviewed the problems of researching chemical markets in developing countries. Although they could hardly be regarded as problem materials, the chlorinated solvents trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene were the subject of the final paper given by G. Harris (PPG Industries (Europe) S.p.A., Rome). Mr. Harris gave a comprehensive paper in which he considered the outlets for these solvents, the methods by which they are produced and the possible effect of alternative solvents such as methyl chloroform on the demand for trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene. The proceedings of the conference including the full texts of all the papers, the subsequent discussion and a list of the delegates will be published in book form. This book will be available during January 1972 when it can be obtained from the Editor of the E.C.M.R.A. Proceedings Dr. N. A. Perkins (c/o BP Chemicals International Limited, Devonshire House, Piccadilly, London, WlX 6AY). The price of the book will be El.80 for EVAF members and 22.60 for non-members. The delegates at the conference came from 16 different countries, 12 West European plus Canada, Hungary, U.S.A. and Yugoslavia. The numbers representing each country were in fair proportion to the size of their chemical industry, although as usual the largest group came from the U.K. A particularly welcome feature is the rising proportion of delegates coming from the U.S.A. and here we owe a debt to the co-ordinating activities of the C.M.R.A. representative Mr. John Fosdick. Essentially, however, this was a European occasion and the informal discussions were frequently in French, German or other European languages. The sixth E.C.M.R.A. conference will be held in Copenhagen on October 9th to 11th 1972. The programme is still at an early stage of development but there will probably be no single theme. Subjects which we expect to be covered will include Scandinavian Chemical Markets, the Effect on the European Ind. Mark. Manage.,
3 (1972)
Chemical Industry of the Enlarged Common Market and Competition between Plastics and Paper. Operational Research Annual Conference
Society,
London,
This year’s annual conference of the Operational Research Society, London, was held during the three days, Monday-Wednesday, 20th to 22nd September in the pleasant surroundings of the University of Lancaster at Bailrigg, Lancaster. Participants were accommodated mainly in study bedrooms in the Bowland, Cartmel and County colleges of the University. The University campus seemed to be well suited to the accommodation of a conference of this kind; the study bedrooms were reasonably comfortable, feeding arrangements were satisfactory and a congenial bar was situated in each college. The plenary sessions of the conference were adequately accommodated in the Great Hall and there was no shortage of lecture theatres and seminar rooms for the five parallel sessions of the conference proper. Banking and shopping facilities were also available on the campus within easy reach of the conference facilities. About 350 participants attended the conference, these came mainly from the United Kingdom but it was a pleasure to find a sprinkling of participants from other countries, notably from the following European countries, Belgium, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Roumania, Sweden, Switzerland, and W. Germany and further afield from Australia, Canada, Israel, South Africa and the U.S.A. After welcoming the participants, the conference Chairman, Dr. P. J. Coen, introduced the opening speaker Prof. R. W. Revans (Stichting IndustrieUniversiteit, Belgium) who made the opening address “The Anatomy of Achievement” a description of a project in which Belgian industry and universities are cooperating to improve the efficiency of management. The main papers of the conference were arranged in four parallel sessions labelled A, B, C and J. The papers in session J were contributed and presented by the younger members of the Society. Space will not permit the listing of all the papers presented, but sets of the precirculated papers are available from the OR Society and will be published together with notes on the discussion in the special Conference issue of OR Quarterly as in the previous year. “Some Observations Regarding the Managerial Role” by J. C. Bex described an interesting study based on the recording of the Id.
Mark.
Manq~e.,
3 (1972)
verbal activity of a manager engaged in his role. The evidence appears to destroy the traditional image of a manager as a decision maker. One was tempted to question some of the findings on the grounds that the manager’s verbal activity did not necessarily reflect his mental activity. However the paper generated some interesting discussion. Some of the papers in Session A2 on Urgency of Decision were memorable for various reasons. “Judgement Modelling in an Environment of Urgency” by D. R. Kaye was well presented and was hailed by many as a novel approach to the problem. The writer felt that such a reception was not justified since it was little more than cooperative empirical model building. “The Decision Tree as a Communication Medium” by J. F. Polhill was a professional but facile presentation of a trivial study and was memorable on that score. The more weighty for the Quick and Dirty paper “An Apologia Exercise and a General Description of an Application in the Manpower Planning Field” by R. F. A. Hopes and Miss E. M. Hofman was noteworthy for the development of a model designed to identify the effects of various policy decisions on the future state of the U.K. Civil Service. The fact that this kind of work is being undertaken by a Government Department is comforting; of even more interest to Government employees was the fact that the Civil Service Department was not contemplating the use of such a model to determine the personal future of Civil Servants. One of the best papers presented, although not heard by the writer, was “Total Planning: A Review of Concepts and Problems” by M. F. Cantley. This paper reviews the theory of adaptive forecasting models and their use for planning purposes. A feature of the conference which was valuable, were the discussion sessions held on the afternoon of the first day in separate rooms. The subjects to be discussed were wide ranging and often introspective for example “What Contribution Can OR Make to Financial Planning?” “Can the Country Afford to Combat Pollution?” One of the discussions became a post mortem on the third London Airport Study, the theme for discussion being “CostBenefit Analysis and Politics Do Not Mix.” Two of the Study Groups of the OR Society organized very lively sessions. These were the R & D Study Group and the Health and Welfare Study Group. The meetings of the latter over-ran the time allotted and such was the interest that it was continued voluntarily up to 18.30. 365
Two interesting papers were presented in the session on Computer Models (C4). “A Company Model for a Computer Bureau” by D. J. Flower and D. Capron was well delivered and a competent piece of work. “Computer Simulation in Education Planning by Dr. I. Vaduva (University of Bucharest) was of interest because of the insight it gave on the planning process in a communist state. His model could be criticised because it sought to simulate the flow of children through the entire educational system, the output of this model feeding into the overall employment plan, yet it ignored the intelligence level of the children entering the model. It relied on the transfer functions between educational levels in the system to measure this factor indirectly, but since these could be regarded as an
366
expression of Official policy the model became self fulfilling. Because the conference refectory would not permit all participants to be seated in one room for the conference dinner, a novel solution to the problem of after dinner speeches was developed. These were made during the reception held in the Great Hall before the dinner. The dinner was otherwise a success except that participants were left to serve themselves in much the same way as during other conference meals. The wine was served with more generosity than was noted at past conferences of the Society and contributed to a more generous flow of conversation. P. MARSDEN
Ind. Mark.
Manage.,
3 (1972)