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2001 saw 1st ever fall in handset sales, but GPRS to boost market in Q3-Q4?
i Markets & B u s i n e s s
News Update
Latest developments in handset alliances To c o m p e t e
with global leaders
Communications
AB ( b a s e d i n
Nokia d o w n on networks; b u t up on handsets N o k i a e x p e c t s t o r e a c h its
commercial latmches starting
Q3/2001 profit forecast of mid-
in 2 0 0 2 .
Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson,
L o n d o n , UK), f r o m O c t o b e r
Matsusl-dta a n d NEC ( t h e t w o
This combines Sony's expertise
Jul}, b u t r e v e n u e will n o w b e
l e a d i n g c e l l - p h o n e n l a k e r s in
in c o n s u m e r
a b o u t 5% d o w n o n Q 3 / 2 0 0 0 ' s
1.
electronics with
J a p a n , w i t h 3 0 % a n d 23% o f t h e
E r i c s s o n ' s in n e t w o r k e q u i p -
e 7 . 5 8 b n ( r a t h e r t h a n 0-5% u p )
Japanese market respectively hut
m e n t . S t a r t - u p c a p i t a l is
a n d 2% d o w n o n Q 2 / 2 0 0 1 .
o n l y %'?4,a n d 3% o f t h e g h ) b a l
e S 4 8 . 2 m a n d initial w o r k l k ) r c e
market) are allying to develop
3,8OO.
s o f t w a r e a n d a p p l i c a t i o n s for 3(;, says NEC p r e s i d e n t Kouji Nishigaki.
N e t w o r k s ( w h i c h in J u n e c u t
T h e J V will b e g i n w i t h g l o b a l
1 0 0 0 o f its 2 3 , 0 0 0 staff), s i n c e
product, marketing and sales
" m a n y operators art, reducD,g their capital expenditures by r u n n i n g existing networks at D~gDer utilization levels a n d deferring inf~wstructure expansion".
operations. Combined
s a l e s last
S i n c e N'FI" I ) o C o M o l a u n c h e d a
year were about 50m units and
trial 3 ( ; s e r v i c e in May, s o i i w a r e
U S $ 7 . 2 b n . First n e w h a n d s e t s
p r o b l e m s h a v e l e d to r e c a l l s o f
are d u e for l a u n c h b y Q 3 / 2 0 0 2 .
all N E C - m a d e p h o n e s , w h i l e a
P r e s i d e n t K a t s u m i I h a r a says it
video phone made by
is a i m i n g ff)r a m a r k e t - l e a d i n g
Matsushita ('ommunication
25% m a r k e t s h a r e .
Industrial (which makes Panasonic devices) was delayed by a month.
N o k i a M o b i l e P h o n e s s a l e s will b e flat o n Q 3 / 2 0 0 0 ' s e S . 4 6 b n
* P r e d i c t i o n s t h a t t h e JV will
b u t 2% u p o n Q 2 / 2 0 0 1 ( w i t h
take top spot by 2005 are being
d e m a n d p i c k i n g u p in t h e US
c a l l e d "totally u n r e a l i s t i c " .
a n d Asia still s t r o n g ) .
* Following their Memorandum
I)eclan Lonergan, a tclecoms
o f l I n d e r s t a n d i n g in A p r i l ( s e e
a n a l y s t at Y a n k e e (;.roup, pre-
I s s u e 4~ p a g e 4), S o n y a n d
d i c t s it will o n l y t a k e t,p t o 8%
E r i c s s o n h a v e m e r g e d t h e i r cell-
T h i s is m o s t l y d u e t o N o k i a
of the market by 2005.
phone businesses worldwide
H o w e v e r , it c o u l d t a k e u p t o
a n d t b r m e d t h e SO-SO j o i n t v e n -
1 ~% o f a d v a n c e d h a n d s e t s ,
ture, Sony Ericsson Mobile
he says.
N o k i a says t h a t t h e first 3 ( ; term i n a l s will s t a r t s h i p p i n g i n
Q3/2002, with w)lumes rising t o t h e m i l l i o n s d u r i n g Q4. * E r i c s s o n h a s e x t e n d e d its flatt o - m o d e F a t e g r o w t h f o r e c a s t for the mobile systems market f r o m 2 0 0 1 t o 2 0 0 2 as w e l l , b e c o m i n g m o r e u n c e r t a i n as the economic
slowdown
has
i n t e n s i f i e d in l,atin A m e r i c a . Strong growth continues in China and Japan. "The number
of mobile sub-
scribers continues
t() g r o w
w i t h SO-60m n e w s u b s c r i b e r s e v e r y q u a r t e r , " says p r e s i d e n t and CEO Kurt Hdlstr6m.
T h e s u b s c r i b e r g r o w t h mite is
"GPRS will a c c e l e r a t e o v e r
s l o w i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y in W e s t e r n
the rest of this year and
E u r o p e b u t will still g r o w globally
n e x t year".
28-3~% in 2001 t o 920-95Om.
"We" a r e o n t r a c k R}r w ) l u m e
Trial 3 ( ; n e t w o r k s will b e
deployment
launched this year with many
he adds,
o f 3 G in 2 0 0 3 , "
Q2/2001 saw 1st ever fall in handset sales, but GPRS to boost market in Q3-Q4? In Q 2 / 2 0 0 1 s h i p m e n t s o f cell
N o k i a ' s m a r k e t s h a r e lk-ll f r o m
* F i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n GPRS p h o n e s
r e b o u n d in sales, b u t a r e a f r a i d
p h o n e s t o e n d - u s e r s fell for t h e
3 ~ - 3 % in Q I t o 3 4 . 8 % in Q 2 ,
from Motorola (the A6288) and
that market acceptance
first t i m e ever, says G a r m e r
while Motorola's rose from
Ericsson have not sold well.
b e as h i g h as e x p e c t e d .
Dataquest, to 89.76m units
1 3 . 2 % t o 14.8% a n d E r i c s s o n ' s
However, Ericsson's secund-
( d o w n 7% ()n 9 6 . 6 m in Q I / 2 0 0 1
f r o m 0 . 8 % t o 8.3?/., ( a l t h o u g h
generation phone
a n d 8.4% o n 9 7 . 8 m at y e a r a g o
l)resdner Kleinwort
l a u n c h e d in A u g u s t ) is s e l l i n g
in Q 2 / 2 0 0 0 ) .
Wasserstein analyst Per
better (and phmning to release
L i n d b e r g r e c k o n s N o k i a fell
the T68 in Q4/2OO1).Also,
f u r t h e r , t o a b o u t 32%, a f t e r
Motorola launched two other
Senior analyst Ben Wood said t h a t , as W e s t e r n E u r o p e n e a r e d saturation point, the market was affected by the reduction in s u b s i d i e s o f f e r e d b y o p e r a t o r s (as a w a v
e s t i m a t e t h a t GPRS s y s t e m s will nut be mature until after Q3/2002, most plan to unveil rdated products from Q3/2001.
b e i n g l a t e in l a u n c h i n g its
m o d e l s ( t h e V 6 6 a n d V 6 0 ) in
G P R S h a n d s e t in o n l y l a t e
mid-August. Motorola forecasts
e x p e c t t h a t GPRS h a n d s e t O E M
September).
~m GPRS handset sales in
a n d O I ) M o r d e r s will b o o s t
2 0 0 1 . N o k i a w a s d u e t o roll
their sales revenues.
o u t its first 8 3 1 0 h a n d s e t in
Taiwan's handset suppliers
Dataquest's \rood
still e x p e c t s
full-year 2001 sales up from
sumers holding back from
2000's 400m traits to about
purchases (hopes
Although most manufilcturers
T a i w a n e s e h a n d s e t m a k e r s also
s u b s c r i b e r s ) , as w e l l as c o n replacement
6
of gaining ncw
(the T39,
will n u t
4 ~ O m , s p u r r e d in s e c o n d - h a l f
S e p t e m b c r , t h e 6 3 1 0 in Q 4 , a n d t h e 8 3 9 0 at e n d - 2 0 O l .
had been pinned on technically
2001 b y t h e a r r i v a l o f m o r e
Component
advanced 2.5(; and 3(; models).
(;PRS handsets.
n e w GPRS h a n d s e t s to s p a r k a
I I l - V s R E V I E W TttE A D V A N C E D S E M I C O N D U C T O R M A G A Z I N E V O L 14 - N O 8 - O c t o b e r l o o t
makers expect
Compal Communications, and Acer (k)mmunications
GVC &
M u l t i m e d i a ( A C M ) will s t a r t t o p l a c e GPRS o r d e r s in Q 4 .
News Update
Latest developments in handset alliances To c o m p e t e
with global leaders
Communications
AB ( b a s e d i n
Nokia d o w n on networks; b u t up on handsets N o k i a e x p e c t s t o r e a c h its
commercial latmches starting
Q3/2001 profit forecast of mid-
in 2 0 0 2 .
Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson,
L o n d o n , UK), f r o m O c t o b e r
Matsusl-dta a n d NEC ( t h e t w o
This combines Sony's expertise
Jul}, b u t r e v e n u e will n o w b e
l e a d i n g c e l l - p h o n e n l a k e r s in
in c o n s u m e r
a b o u t 5% d o w n o n Q 3 / 2 0 0 0 ' s
1.
electronics with
J a p a n , w i t h 3 0 % a n d 23% o f t h e
E r i c s s o n ' s in n e t w o r k e q u i p -
e 7 . 5 8 b n ( r a t h e r t h a n 0-5% u p )
Japanese market respectively hut
m e n t . S t a r t - u p c a p i t a l is
a n d 2% d o w n o n Q 2 / 2 0 0 1 .
o n l y %'?4,a n d 3% o f t h e g h ) b a l
e S 4 8 . 2 m a n d initial w o r k l k ) r c e
market) are allying to develop
3,8OO.
s o f t w a r e a n d a p p l i c a t i o n s for 3(;, says NEC p r e s i d e n t Kouji Nishigaki.
N e t w o r k s ( w h i c h in J u n e c u t
T h e J V will b e g i n w i t h g l o b a l
1 0 0 0 o f its 2 3 , 0 0 0 staff), s i n c e
product, marketing and sales
" m a n y operators art, reducD,g their capital expenditures by r u n n i n g existing networks at D~gDer utilization levels a n d deferring inf~wstructure expansion".
operations. Combined
s a l e s last
S i n c e N'FI" I ) o C o M o l a u n c h e d a
year were about 50m units and
trial 3 ( ; s e r v i c e in May, s o i i w a r e
U S $ 7 . 2 b n . First n e w h a n d s e t s
p r o b l e m s h a v e l e d to r e c a l l s o f
are d u e for l a u n c h b y Q 3 / 2 0 0 2 .
all N E C - m a d e p h o n e s , w h i l e a
P r e s i d e n t K a t s u m i I h a r a says it
video phone made by
is a i m i n g ff)r a m a r k e t - l e a d i n g
Matsushita ('ommunication
25% m a r k e t s h a r e .
Industrial (which makes Panasonic devices) was delayed by a month.
N o k i a M o b i l e P h o n e s s a l e s will b e flat o n Q 3 / 2 0 0 0 ' s e S . 4 6 b n
* P r e d i c t i o n s t h a t t h e JV will
b u t 2% u p o n Q 2 / 2 0 0 1 ( w i t h
take top spot by 2005 are being
d e m a n d p i c k i n g u p in t h e US
c a l l e d "totally u n r e a l i s t i c " .
a n d Asia still s t r o n g ) .
* Following their Memorandum
I)eclan Lonergan, a tclecoms
o f l I n d e r s t a n d i n g in A p r i l ( s e e
a n a l y s t at Y a n k e e (;.roup, pre-
I s s u e 4~ p a g e 4), S o n y a n d
d i c t s it will o n l y t a k e t,p t o 8%
E r i c s s o n h a v e m e r g e d t h e i r cell-
T h i s is m o s t l y d u e t o N o k i a
of the market by 2005.
phone businesses worldwide
H o w e v e r , it c o u l d t a k e u p t o
a n d t b r m e d t h e SO-SO j o i n t v e n -
1 ~% o f a d v a n c e d h a n d s e t s ,
ture, Sony Ericsson Mobile
he says.
N o k i a says t h a t t h e first 3 ( ; term i n a l s will s t a r t s h i p p i n g i n
Q3/2002, with w)lumes rising t o t h e m i l l i o n s d u r i n g Q4. * E r i c s s o n h a s e x t e n d e d its flatt o - m o d e F a t e g r o w t h f o r e c a s t for the mobile systems market f r o m 2 0 0 1 t o 2 0 0 2 as w e l l , b e c o m i n g m o r e u n c e r t a i n as the economic
slowdown
has
i n t e n s i f i e d in l,atin A m e r i c a . Strong growth continues in China and Japan. "The number
of mobile sub-
scribers continues
t() g r o w
w i t h SO-60m n e w s u b s c r i b e r s e v e r y q u a r t e r , " says p r e s i d e n t and CEO Kurt Hdlstr6m.
T h e s u b s c r i b e r g r o w t h mite is
"GPRS will a c c e l e r a t e o v e r
s l o w i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y in W e s t e r n
the rest of this year and
E u r o p e b u t will still g r o w globally
n e x t year".
28-3~% in 2001 t o 920-95Om.
"We" a r e o n t r a c k R}r w ) l u m e
Trial 3 ( ; n e t w o r k s will b e
deployment
launched this year with many
he adds,
o f 3 G in 2 0 0 3 , "
Q2/2001 saw 1st ever fall in handset sales, but GPRS to boost market in Q3-Q4? In Q 2 / 2 0 0 1 s h i p m e n t s o f cell
N o k i a ' s m a r k e t s h a r e lk-ll f r o m
* F i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n GPRS p h o n e s
r e b o u n d in sales, b u t a r e a f r a i d
p h o n e s t o e n d - u s e r s fell for t h e
3 ~ - 3 % in Q I t o 3 4 . 8 % in Q 2 ,
from Motorola (the A6288) and
that market acceptance
first t i m e ever, says G a r m e r
while Motorola's rose from
Ericsson have not sold well.
b e as h i g h as e x p e c t e d .
Dataquest, to 89.76m units
1 3 . 2 % t o 14.8% a n d E r i c s s o n ' s
However, Ericsson's secund-
( d o w n 7% ()n 9 6 . 6 m in Q I / 2 0 0 1
f r o m 0 . 8 % t o 8.3?/., ( a l t h o u g h
generation phone
a n d 8.4% o n 9 7 . 8 m at y e a r a g o
l)resdner Kleinwort
l a u n c h e d in A u g u s t ) is s e l l i n g
in Q 2 / 2 0 0 0 ) .
Wasserstein analyst Per
better (and phmning to release
L i n d b e r g r e c k o n s N o k i a fell
the T68 in Q4/2OO1).Also,
f u r t h e r , t o a b o u t 32%, a f t e r
Motorola launched two other
Senior analyst Ben Wood said t h a t , as W e s t e r n E u r o p e n e a r e d saturation point, the market was affected by the reduction in s u b s i d i e s o f f e r e d b y o p e r a t o r s (as a w a v
e s t i m a t e t h a t GPRS s y s t e m s will nut be mature until after Q3/2002, most plan to unveil rdated products from Q3/2001.
b e i n g l a t e in l a u n c h i n g its
m o d e l s ( t h e V 6 6 a n d V 6 0 ) in
G P R S h a n d s e t in o n l y l a t e
mid-August. Motorola forecasts
e x p e c t t h a t GPRS h a n d s e t O E M
September).
~m GPRS handset sales in
a n d O I ) M o r d e r s will b o o s t
2 0 0 1 . N o k i a w a s d u e t o roll
their sales revenues.
o u t its first 8 3 1 0 h a n d s e t in
Taiwan's handset suppliers
Dataquest's \rood
still e x p e c t s
full-year 2001 sales up from
sumers holding back from
2000's 400m traits to about
purchases (hopes
Although most manufilcturers
T a i w a n e s e h a n d s e t m a k e r s also
s u b s c r i b e r s ) , as w e l l as c o n replacement
6
of gaining ncw
(the T39,
will n u t
4 ~ O m , s p u r r e d in s e c o n d - h a l f
S e p t e m b c r , t h e 6 3 1 0 in Q 4 , a n d t h e 8 3 9 0 at e n d - 2 0 O l .
had been pinned on technically
2001 b y t h e a r r i v a l o f m o r e
Component
advanced 2.5(; and 3(; models).
(;PRS handsets.
n e w GPRS h a n d s e t s to s p a r k a
I I l - V s R E V I E W TttE A D V A N C E D S E M I C O N D U C T O R M A G A Z I N E V O L 14 - N O 8 - O c t o b e r l o o t
makers expect
Compal Communications, and Acer (k)mmunications
GVC &
M u l t i m e d i a ( A C M ) will s t a r t t o p l a c e GPRS o r d e r s in Q 4 .