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Symposium on earthquake prediction: Rntroductory remarks
Tectonophysics - Elsevier Publishing Company, Amsterdam Printed in The Netherlands
SYMPOSIUM ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: INTRODUCTORY REMARKS It is my great pleasure to say a few words as convener of the symposium on earthquake prediction. Current interest in earthquakes is likely to be focussing on earthquake prediction. Pessimistic views have long prevailed among scientists who thought that earthquake prediction may be impossible before an exact knowledge on earthquake phenomena was obtained and so attention should be concentrated only on basic research of the phenomena. In recent years, however, the situation has changed considerably, many scientists are beginning to believe in the possibility that some measures for predicting earthquakes can eventually be achieved. As a matter of fact, in a number of countries, studies on earthquake prediction are now progressing greatly. Geodetic and geophysical evidences such as unusual land deformation and unusual occurrence of small earthquakes forerunning a large earthquake are actually reported as a result of observation in active seismic regions over a long period of time. The instruments measuring micro-earthquakes, small strain of the ground and small anomalies of geomagnetism have been improved surprisingly. On the other hand, laboratory experiments of fracture and creep of rocks under pressure and temperature are revealing the fracture mechanism that suggests the possibility of earthquake predictions. In 1962, a group of Japanese scientists proposed a plan for developing research on earthquake prediction. In 1965, after the excitement caused by the great Alaskan earthquake of 1964, a formal committee organized by U.S. scientists presented the government with a proposal for a ten year programme of research on earthquake prediction. In the same year, an intergovernmental meeting on seismology and earthquake engineering under the auspices of UNESCO, arousing interest in studies aimed at earthquake prediction, requested UNESCO to support further advanced studies with this aim. In 1964 and 1966, scientific conferences were held by the U.S. and Japan scientists and, through these conferences, an exchange of valuable information was made in enthusiastic discussions concerning earthquake prediction problems. Prediction of earthquakes, which had been proposed to promote its projected research a few years ago, has begun to draw world-wide attention, the U.S.S.R. and certain European countries also having a strong desire to develop their research in this respect. It would be important and useful for the future work of earthquake prediction research to summarize what is going on in various countries and what has been achieved in various branches of geophysics. Although the time available for the symposium is extremely limited, I believe that current aspects of earthquake prediction research will be brought out in fair detail. T. HAGIWARA (Tokyo)
Tectonophysics,
6 (1) (1968) 9
SYMPOSIUM ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: INTRODUCTORY REMARKS It is my great pleasure to say a few words as convener of the symposium on earthquake prediction. Current interest in earthquakes is likely to be focussing on earthquake prediction. Pessimistic views have long prevailed among scientists who thought that earthquake prediction may be impossible before an exact knowledge on earthquake phenomena was obtained and so attention should be concentrated only on basic research of the phenomena. In recent years, however, the situation has changed considerably, many scientists are beginning to believe in the possibility that some measures for predicting earthquakes can eventually be achieved. As a matter of fact, in a number of countries, studies on earthquake prediction are now progressing greatly. Geodetic and geophysical evidences such as unusual land deformation and unusual occurrence of small earthquakes forerunning a large earthquake are actually reported as a result of observation in active seismic regions over a long period of time. The instruments measuring micro-earthquakes, small strain of the ground and small anomalies of geomagnetism have been improved surprisingly. On the other hand, laboratory experiments of fracture and creep of rocks under pressure and temperature are revealing the fracture mechanism that suggests the possibility of earthquake predictions. In 1962, a group of Japanese scientists proposed a plan for developing research on earthquake prediction. In 1965, after the excitement caused by the great Alaskan earthquake of 1964, a formal committee organized by U.S. scientists presented the government with a proposal for a ten year programme of research on earthquake prediction. In the same year, an intergovernmental meeting on seismology and earthquake engineering under the auspices of UNESCO, arousing interest in studies aimed at earthquake prediction, requested UNESCO to support further advanced studies with this aim. In 1964 and 1966, scientific conferences were held by the U.S. and Japan scientists and, through these conferences, an exchange of valuable information was made in enthusiastic discussions concerning earthquake prediction problems. Prediction of earthquakes, which had been proposed to promote its projected research a few years ago, has begun to draw world-wide attention, the U.S.S.R. and certain European countries also having a strong desire to develop their research in this respect. It would be important and useful for the future work of earthquake prediction research to summarize what is going on in various countries and what has been achieved in various branches of geophysics. Although the time available for the symposium is extremely limited, I believe that current aspects of earthquake prediction research will be brought out in fair detail. T. HAGIWARA (Tokyo)
Tectonophysics,
6 (1) (1968) 9