The Dar es Salaam Milk System: dynamics of Change and Sustainability

HABI¹A¹ IN¹¸. Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 189 — 200, 1999  1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0197—3975/99 $ — see front matter

PII: S0197-3975(98)00044-7

The Dar es Salaam Milk System: dynamics of Change and Sustainability1 JAMES SUMBERG* School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

ABSTRACT Three major themes in the current discussion of African cities are poverty, the effects of economic structural adjustment programmes and the need for greater sustainability of urban systems. In relation to each of these the potential benefits of increased food production in urban and peri-urban areas have been highlighted. This paper uses the case of milk production and marketing in and around Dar es Salaam, Tanzania to explore the impacts of changing economic and policy contexts on one element of the urban food system. It is concluded that neither the limited number of commercial milk produces in the peri-urban zone nor the recently expanded number of small-scale urban producers are likely to form the basis of a sustainable, locally based milk system for the city. The enthusiasm for sustainable cities, and food production in urban and peri-urban zones to support them, should not be allowed to divert policy and limited investment funds toward agricultural activities and systems which have little long-term comparative advantage.  1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: sustainable cities; urban agriculture; structural adjustment; peri-urban; Dar es Salaam; Tanzania; dairy

1. INTRODUCTION There is little doubt that structural adjustment programmes have had profound effects on urban areas and their populations in sub-Saharan Africa (Becker et al., 1994). In relation to urban food systems, these effects have not been particularly well studied, but they are likely to have been both multiple and contradictory (Riddell, 1997; Drakakis-Smith et al., 1995). Less restrictive import regimes and reduced state intervention in production and marketing may increase the overall efficiency of the food system by promoting competition and eliminating ineffective parastatal agencies. At the same time, an improved regulatory environment should help release the entrepreneurial energies of producers, processors and marketers, and open the way for the development of new markets for high-value products. On the other hand, reduced subsidies and increased real prices for agricultural inputs

* Tel: #44-(0) 1603-593381; fax: #44-(0) 1603-505262; e-mail: [email protected]

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may put downward pressure on yields, and a shift to export crops may reduce the availability of certain foods. Demand for some food products may also be adversely affected in the short term by the reduced purchasing power of civil servants and other urban residents. Other potential impacts of structural adjustment programmes on urban food systems include an increase in food production for both own consumption and sale within the urban environment, as part of a response to declining standards of living. Concurrent with the era of structural adjustment has been a renewed interest in the nature and management of urban areas in the developing world, and the notion of ‘sustainable cities’ is being used as a framework with which to consider a very wide range of social, political, economic and environmental issues (Houghton and Hunter, 1994; Satterthwaite, 1997; Blassingame, 1998). In terms of the latter, the challenge is both to increase the quality of the urban environment (i.e. improve sanitation, reduce pollution, increase green areas, etc.) and reduce the larger environmental footprint of these urban areas, while making a positive contribution to poverty reduction. At one extreme of the environmental sustainability debate, some authors have argued that urban systems must become significantly more ‘closed’ and self-sufficient than at present. Specifically, in terms of nutrients and food, this would mean, for example, that urban organic wastes, which at present can represent a enormous problem in terms of timely and safe disposal, are used to support vastly increased agricultural production in urban and peri-urban areas (e.g. Smit and Nasr, 1992). Such an understanding of urban environmental sustainability could have radical implications not only for urban services and land use, but also for the larger regional and national food systems. A more moderate approach simply promoting urban food production both for what are assumed to be its positive poverty alleviation and environmental management effects has been widely accepted by agencies seeking to alleviate the negative impacts of structural adjustment on the urban poor (Egziabher et al., 1994; UNDP, 1996; cf. Gutman, 1987; Ellis and Sumberg, 1998). Thus, urban food systems and their components are being affected indirectly by a suite of macro-level policies, and directly by programmes and projects aimed specifically to encourage or broaden urban and peri-urban production. Food production in and around African cities has been studied as an element of the livelihood strategies of poor people (e.g. Rakodi, 1985; Sanyal, 1985; Maxwell, 1995); in terms of real and potential contributions to urban food systems (DrakakisSmith et al., 1995); and in relation to its impacts on the urban environment. Studies of Kampala (Maxwell and Zziwa, 1993; Maxwell, 1995), Nairobi (Lee-Smith et al., 1987; Lado, 1990; Memon and Lee-Smith, 1993; Freeman, 1991, 1993), Dar es Salaam (Briggs, 1991; Mlozi et al., 1992; Mlozi, 1995a, b; Mwamfupe, 1994; Sawio, 1993), Lusaka (Sanyal, 1985; Rakodi, 1985, 1988a, b), and Harare (Drakakis-Smith and Kivell, 1990; Drakakis-Smith, 1992; Mbiba, 1994; Drakakis-Smith et al., 1995) have addressed two principle questions: who are the urban and peri-urban farmers? and, what role does urban and peri-urban agriculture play in their livelihoods? The picture that emerges is complex and at times counter-intuitive. For example, urban food producers are more likely to be long-term urban dwellers than recent migrants from rural areas; and much urban food production cannot be seen as part of a desperate survival strategy of the very poorest. This is particularly true in relation to production of high-value products such as milk, eggs and poultry meat which require considerable capital investment and relatively high levels of management. In Tanzania, research on agriculture in urban and peri-urban areas has focused on changes in settlement patterns and land use (Briggs, 1991; Sawio, 1993; Mwamfupe, 1994; Kombe, 1994); supply systems and consumption patterns for horticultural produce and livestock products (Mullins, 1993; Airey, 1995; Lynch, 1994; Kurwijila et al., 1995; Sumberg, 1998), and various other aspects of these production activities (Mlozi et al., 1992; Mvena et al., 1991; Mosha, 1991; Mlozi, 1991,

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1995a, b; Lupala, 1993; Sawio, 1994; Schippers and Lewcock, 1994). There has been some recent research and development work in Tanzania focused specifically on urban and peri-urban dairy production (Auerbo¨ch et al., 1993; Mullins, 1993; Kurwijila et al., 1995; Nyamrunda and Sumberg, 1998); although Sumberg (1997) has shown that despite being on the policy agenda since the 1920s there has been relatively little development of commercial milk production in the Dar es Salaam peri-urban zone. One central theme which emerges from this work is the impact of a extended period of economic hardship, and subsequently the government’s programme of economic liberalisation and structural adjustment, on both the practitioners and systems of urban and peri-urban agriculture (Briggs, 1991; Sawio, 1993; Mlozi, 1995b). Basically, the argument is that falling real wages of civil servants and other middle class urban residents stimulated a search for additional sources of income, and that food production, and particularly the production of high value livestock products, was a relatively easy option. In this paper I explore this argument through an analysis of the structure of, and dynamics of change within, the production and marketing systems that supply fresh milk to Dar es Salaam. The objective is to determine the impacts of both economic structural adjustment programmes and more specific sectoral initiatives seeking to promote urban and peri-urban dairying, in order to shed further light on the nature of urban food systems, and specifically the debate concerning the relationship between the sustainability of cities and the development potential of food production activities in and around them. The next two sections of the paper look at the distribution of human and dairy cattle populations in and around the city, and this is followed by a description of milk production, processing and marketing systems and an analysis of consumption patterns. The paper ends with a section setting out the factors associated with recent major developments in the city’s milk system, and a discussion of the implications and sustainability of these. 2. THE DAR ES SALAAM MILK SYSTEM 2.1. Land and population density Dar es Salaam is the name given to both Tanzania’s capital city and the administrative region within which it sits; Dar es Salaam Region is divided into three districts (Kinindoni, Ilala and Temeke) which together have a land area of approximately 1396 km. The population of the region increased from 274 000 to 870 000 in the decade before 1978, and to 1.36 million by 1988 (Briggs, 1991; Bureau of Statistics n.d.). Dar es Salaam Region is bordered to the north, west and south by Coast Region, and the three Coast Region districts of interest (Bagamoyo, Kibaha and Kisarawe) have a land area of approximately 20 million km and had an estimated population in 1988 of 0.45 million (Bureau of Statistics n.d.). Most of Dar es Salaam Region lies within 30 km of the city centre, while the furthest borders of Coast Region are over 125 km from Dar es Salaam centre. As indicated in Table 1, at the time of the 1988 census something in the order of 10% of the land area of Dar es Salaam was classified as ‘urban’ while over 60% was classified as ‘rural’. The urban wards are concentrated around the centre of the city and contain over 80% of the population. In contrast, nearly 90% of the area of the three districts of Coast Region is in wards classified as rural, where 75% of the region’s human population is located. Other recent studies of land use around Dar es Salaam indicate that in addition to the city centre itself, urban development tends be located along the three major roads leading from the centre (Mwanfupe, 1994; Briggs, 1991); these studies also confirm the fact that there are still relatively large areas within the municipal boundary which have few urban characteristics.

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James Sumberg Table 1. Distribution of land area and human population by ward type, 1988 Land area (%)

Area Kinondoni District Ilala District Temeke District Dar es Salaam Region Bagamoyo District Kibaha District Kisarawe District Coast Region

Human population (%)

Rural

Mixed

Urban

Rural

Mixed

Urban

73 34 83 66 88 79 92 89

0 12 13 25 12 21 8 11

27 55 4 9 (1 0 0 (1

9 7 12 9 74 55 81 74

0 14 21 10 21 45 19 24

91 80 67 81 5 0 0 2

Source: Bureau of Statistics (n.d.) and own estimates of district land areas.

Population density declines with increasing distance from the city centre, such that further than 20 km, all wards have densities of less than 501 persons/km (from a maximum of 32 000 persons/km in the city centre) and most have less than 101 persons/km. The relationship between distance from the city centre and human population density appears to have two forms. Within about 4 km of the city centre population density is relatively constant, but beyond 4 km population density declines linearly with increasing distance. The census classification of ward types also reflects significant and consistent differences in population density, with averages of 11 738, 947 and 221 persons/km in Dar es Salaam’s urban, mixed and rural wards, respectively (Table 2). The differences between the average population density of the three ward types in Coast Region are less dramatic and less consistent. These data highlight the fact the Dar es Salaam area is not uniform in terms of either population density or land use, and that within the municipal boundaries there exist relatively large areas with low population density and a preponderance of agricultural land use. This potential availability of nearby land which is (or could be) used for food production is clearly of great importance in terms of urban residents’ actual or potential contributions to the urban food system. These data also help to locate, at least in a approximate way, the peri-urban zone, which has also been highlighted as a critical area to support more sustainable urban food systems. If the essence of the peri-urban zone is that it is transitional, exhibiting both urban and rural characteristics (OECD, 1979), then both the spatial distribution of ward types and average population density in Dar es Salaam indicate a zone of transition between the high density, urban city centre (i.e. within a radius of 20 km) and the low density, rural areas beyond a 40—50 km radius. This is essentially the same zone in which Briggs (1991) and Mwamfupe (1994) studied changes in agricultural land use in response to changing economic contrants and opportunities. 2.1.1. Cattle distribution and herd characteristics. The number of grade dairy cattle (i.e. animals carrying some percentage of blood from European dairy breeds) within Dar es Salaam Region has increased dramatically: from a base of 3300 in 1985, Mlozi (1995b, p. 65) estimated that by 1993 there were upwards of 18 000 grade dairy cattle in the region with perhaps an additional 5000 in adjacent areas. Cattle are located in all ward types, but over 40% of animals and 60% of owners are located in urban wards. The relationship between the distribution of dairy cattle and human population density is shown in Table 3: significantly, 20% of cattle and 29% of owners are located in areas with a human population density greater than 5000 persons/km. At the other end of the scale, approximately half of the cattle and 24% of the owners are located in areas with a population density less than

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The Dar es Salaam Milk System ¹able 2. Average population density by ward type (persons/km), 1988 Ward type Area

Rural

Mixed

Urban

Kinondoni District Ilala District Temeke District Dar es Salaam Region Bagamoyo District Kibaha District Kisarawe District Coast Region

172 166 274 221 23 40 32 30

— 754 1011 947 40 123 86 84

13 090 10 881 10 622 11 738 2357 — — 2357

Source: Bureau of Statistics (n.d.) and own estimates of district land areas.

Table 3. Distribution of dairy cattle in relation to human population density, 1992 Midpoint of population density class (persons/km) 50 300 750 3000 7500 18 500 Total

Dairy cattle no.

%

Cattle owners

%

4777 1765 1243 3286 728 2039

35 13 9 24 5 15

274 90 196 483 141 314

18 6 13 32 9 21

13 883

100

1498

100

Source: Bureau of Statistics (n.d.), own estimates of district landareas, and 1992 Rinderpest Campaign lists.

500 persons/km, corresponding to rural wards in Dar es Salaam Region and rural and mixed wards in Coast Region. The distribution of grade cattle outside the city is closely related to the form of the existing road network, with significant cattle populations in Kibaha along the Morogoro road and in Bagamoyo. While herds range in size from 1 to over 300 head, grade cattle are predominately held in small herds averaging 10 head, and overall, 50% of cattle owners have fewer that five animals. The distribution of dairy cattle amongst owners is such that 50% of the herds contain only 13% of all the animals, while the 16 largest herds (approximately 1.1% of all herds) contain 20% of the animals. Larger herd sizes are associated with wards having lower population densities (Table 4) and greater distance from the city (Fig. 1). Of the 107 herds with more than 20 head (representing only 7% of all herds but 48% of all animals), 43% are located in wards with less than 100 persons/km. Thus, there is an important spatial dimension to the distribution and size of grade dairy herds, and this spatial dimension helps to characterise existing milk production systems.

2.1.2. Milk production, processing and distribution. Three milk production systems can be identified in and around Dar es Salaam. The first is essentially a sideline economic activity; it is characterised by small herds, feed gathered and grazed from public lands or purchased from boys who cut roadside grass, and direct marketing of milk to individual consumers. These producers are predominately middle class persons — and many are civil servants — who keep animals within their residential compounds in the city’s low and medium density residential areas. The second milk production system is a specialised commercial enterprise that is characterised by larger herds and paddock grazing. A major distinction between these two systems is that the former is supported by a relatively high level of indirect subsidy associated with employment in government service, such that the dairy enterprise never bears

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James Sumberg

Fig. 1. Relationship between herd size and distance from the city centre.

Table 4. Dairy herd characteristics, Dar es Salaam, 1992 Midpoint of population density class

Maximum herd

Minimum herd

Median herd

Modal herd

Mean herd

S.E. of mean

50 300 750 3000 7500 18 500

303 211 208 176 21 106

1 1 1 1 1 1

4 8 3 5 4 4

1 2 2 2 4 2

18 a 20 a 6b 8b 6c 7d

2.37 3.66 1.16 0.57 0.38 0.49

Total F-value Prob. (

303 — —

1 — —

5 — —

2 — —

10 15.6 0.001

0.58 — —

Means followed by the same letter are significantly different at p(0.05 using Duncan’s Multiple Range test. Source: Bureau of Statistics (n.d.), own estimates of district land areas, and 1992 Rinderpest Campaign lists.

the true costs of production. A third production system is based on the sale of surplus milk by traditional cattle keepers such as the Maasai. These production systems also have a distinct spatial distribution, with part-time producers generally located in higher density, urban areas, specialised commercial enterprises generally located in lower density areas at the periphery of the city, and Masai producers located in distinctly rural areas more than 60 km west of the city centre along the Morogoro Road. There are two major channels through which locally produced milk is distributed to consumers in Dar es Salaam, and these channels reflect to some degree the origin of the milk. Thus, milk produced in and around the central residential areas is usually delivered by the producer (or more likely his or her employee) to nearby consumers, or picked-up by the consumers at the place of production. In contrast, larger producers in outlying areas transport milk to the city in small lorries and on public buses and then deliver to institutional customers (hotels, restaurants, hospitals and schools) or sell it through kiosks and shops. There are more than 30 specialised milk kiosks in Dar es Salaam and many small, independent shops in residential areas also sell fresh milk and yoghurt. The sale of milk through kiosks is essentially monopolised by one individual who uses

The Dar es Salaam Milk System

195

a network of 14 kiosks to sell milk produced on his own farm as well as milk shipped from Iringa and Tanga. These kiosks sell fresh, boiled and sour milk by the glass and litre. In fact, until recently the Tanzania Dairies Ltd. (TDL) processing plant in the industrial area of Ubongo at the western edge of the city was supposed to have a monopoly, as granted (originally to Coastal Dairies) through an 1969 marketing order, on the purchase and distribution of milk within Dar es Salaam. Throughout most of its lifetime, however, the plant relied on the reconstitution of dry milk and butter oil supplied by the World Food Programme, and locally produced milk has never been a significant factor in the plant’s operation (Sumberg, 1997). Even before the demise of TDL in 1996, most producers disregarded the milk marketing order: most milk was marketed directly to consumers and TDL was used only as a market of last resort, a place to off-load the seasonal surplus milk. The motivation for this end-run around the marketing regulations was the substantial differential between the price offered to producers by TDL and the retail price (in December 1995, for example, TDL was offering producers only 35% of the retail price in Dar es Salaam). The fact that producers and consumers are in relatively close proximity, and that individual producers have only small quantities to market on a daily basis, means that producers can effectively capture for themselves the substantial difference between the TDL and retail prices. This situation persisted because TDL was either unwilling or unable to increase the price offered for fresh milk, despite the fact that since the abandonment of pan-territorial pricing for milk in 1988 it has had the right to adjust prices offered to producers to reflect local conditions. Some milk consumed in Dar es Salaam is subject to formal processing: in addition to that which is imported from overseas, milk shipped from Iringa is pasteurised at the farm using the hofferisation process; milk from the co-operative in Tanga is also pasteurised before it is shipped; and any milk that passed through the TDL plant was pasteurised and blended with reconstituted milk. However, these four sources account for a relatively small proportion of all milk entering Dar es Salaam, the bulk of which is sold to the consumer either fresh, boiled or soured. There is a sense from available studies that the largest proportion of liquid milk is boiled before consumption, which would go some way to protecting consumers against disease organisms carried in the milk. It is also important to note the long-standing aversion to pasteurised milk on the part of Dar es Salaam consumers (Department of Vet. Science, 1955 : 25; Kurwijila et al., 1995, p. 19). In recent years there have been several private initiatives in relation to milk processing and the manufacture of dairy products. Some of these plants rely solely on imported milk powder, and one recently opened plant is based on equipment purchased from a non-operational dairy in Iringa. The plan is to produce cheese and yoghurt, and the plant has the capacity to receive and handle both up to 4000 l of fresh or re-constituted milk daily (the TDL plant had a capacity of 90 000 l/day). However, all such initiatives face the same problem as TDL, in that unless direct access by the milk producers to the retail market is restricted (through an enforceable milk marketing order, health regulations, or consumer preference), the manufacturing plants are unlikely to attract sufficient quantities of fresh milk to make the exercise worthwhile. 2.1.3. Milk supply and consumption. Kurwijila et al. (1995) estimated the daily inflow of milk into Dar es Salaam to be in the order of 50 000 l (Table 5) with peri-urban and urban producers supplying 44 and 16% of the total, respectively. There have been a number of attempts to estimate levels and patterns of consumption of dairy products by residents of Dar es Salaam (Thompson and Ahmed, 1981;

196

James Sumberg Table 5. Estimated daily inflows of milk to Dar es Salaam, mid-1990s Source

Milk supplied litres/day

%

Cattle no.

Owners no.

Peri-Urban Urban Masai Others Imports

22 000 8000 4000 2 000 14 000

44 16 8 4 28

7990 3112 — — —

806 522 — — —

Total

50 000

100

11 102

1328

Source: Kurwijila et al. (1995) and Auerbo¨ck et al. (1993).

Mullins, 1993; Kurwijila et al., 1995). Thompson and Ahmed (1981) conducted a preliminary survey of milk consumption patterns of the households of 83 employees of the Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock. Overall 83% and 46% reported consuming liquid and powdered milk, respectively, and average per capita daily consumption was estimated at 0.16 l. More recently, Mullins (1993) surveyed 79 households in Dar es Salaam’s three districts: 51% reported consuming raw milk, 36% pasteurised milk, 26% fermented milk and 19% powdered milk. The average per capita daily consumption of dairy products (in litres of milk equivalent) was estimated to be 0.27, 0.27 and 0.47 for low, middle and high income households, respectively. From a survey of 120 households, in Dar es Salaam, Kurwijila et al. (1995) estimated that 80% consumed raw milk and 40% consumed fermented milk, with average per capita daily consumption of these two products increasing from 0.13 l for households with monthly incomes of 21000—50 000 Tsh (US$1"500 Tsh) to 0.28 l for households earning more that 100 000 Tsh. They also reported that urban households owning dairy cattle consumed nearly twice as much raw milk as other urban households and that they sold nearly 90% of the milk they produced. Kurwijila et al. then claimed there was a unmet demand for milk in Dar es Salaam in the order of 10 000 l day, although the basis for this estimate is unclear. Official retail price series for 1988—1996 indicate that the relative price of fresh milk has risen at more or less the same rate as those of both the staple cereal maize and eggs, which is in contrast to the situation found in Mwanza, the second largest city in Tanzania, where the retail price of milk appears to have fallen relative to the price of maize (Nyamrunda and Sumberg, 1998).

3. THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE The two most important changes in the Dar es Salaam milk system have been the dramatic increase in the number of dairy cattle kept in urban areas and the demise of direct government involvement in milk production, processing and distribution. Both of these changes are directly associated with Tanzania’s long-running economic crisis. Beginning in the early 1980s middle class urban residents began to invest seriously in dairy cattle (as well as poultry) in an attempt to redress the eroding purchasing power of their salaries. With indirect subsidisation via, for example, their government housing, job-related transport and preferred access to drugs and feeds, these new urban dairy producers were able to establish a substantial niche for themselves in the direct marketing of fresh milk to urban consumers. However, only by capturing the full retail price were they able to pay for the labour and feed needed to support this intensive production system. Given that dairy production within Dar es Salaam is for all intents and purposes unregulated, other environmental and health costs associated with, for example, inappropriate disposal of manure, and its potential effects on water quality, sanitation and human

The Dar es Salaam Milk System

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health, have been entirely externalised. In effect this represents another level of subsidy to the urban producers, and given their social standing and political muscle, these are costs which in the near future they are unlikely to be forced to internalise. The root causes of the second major change, the demise of milk production and processing by parastatal organisations, are closely related to the factors stimulating growth in the urban dairy sector. The same national economic crisis that reduced the purchasing power of the middle class also forced government to finally abandon its socialist agricultural policy based on large-scale production units and parastatal companies, a policy that was never successful in any case. With an ageing and poorly maintained plant, only limited fresh milk from the parastatal farms, and an imminent end to the World Food Programme’s provision of milk powder and butter oil for re-constitution, TDL ceased to be a major force within the city’s milk system. Adding insult to injury, the relatively small number of commercial producers in the peri-urban zone and the growing number of urban producers openly flouted the marketing order by selling their milk directly to consumers. In its last months of operation the bulk of TLD’s limited fresh milk intake was provided by Maasai herders milking traditional cattle (Sumberg, 1997). Against this backdrop of economic crisis, concerns about the plight of the urban poor and the environmental impact of rapid and uncontrolled urbanisation heightened interest in the notion of the sustainable city. One manifestation of this has been a spate of development interventions focused on agricultural production activities in and around urban areas. This raises a series of questions relating to the priority which should be given to, and the sustainability of the impacts which might result from, such policies and projects. Four specific questions can be identified: What is the potential for additional income generation? What is the potential for poverty alleviation? What is the likely contribution to the urban food supply? What is the likely environmental impact? Answers to these questions depend on context and site specific considerations, including agro-climate, history, sector (dairy, horticulture, etc.) and policy environment. In this light it should be obvious that calls for greater investment in urban and peri-urban agricultural as a means of ensuring greater urban sustainability should be answered with considerable caution (Ellis and Sumberg, 1998): some of the potential pitfalls and difficulties can be illustrated by the case of dairy production in the Dar es Salaam peri-urban zone. Despite a strong demand for milk, a core group of established commercial farmers and a dairy development policy which highlights the potential role of the peri-urban zone, there is little sign that dairying in the Dar es Salaam peri-urban zone has gone through or is about to enter a period of significant expansion. In fact, a review of attempts over the last 70 years to ensure an adequate milk supply to Dar es Salaam showed little sustained dairy development in the peri-urban zone (Sumberg, 1997). This is particularly surprising because during this period periurban dairy development was repeatedly identified by technicians and policy makers as a desirable means of supplying fresh milk to the urban population. Milk producers in the peri-urban zone are faced with significant agro-ecological constraints to efficient dairy production, the most important of which are the cattle disease trypanosomiasis (transmitted by the tsetse fly), high temperature and humidity, and an extended dry season which negatively affects fodder availability and nutritional quality. Faced with these constraints, even the advantage of a large captive market created by the poor state of the road network linking Dar es Salaam with the rest of Tanzania has not been sufficient to increase the number of peri-urban producers or to push existing producers past the stage of direct marketing. In other words, the extra costs associated with these constraints to production mean that commercial dairy production in the Dar es Salaam peri-urban zone is viable only if the additional premium associated with direct marketing can be captured by the producer. However, this situation is in many ways an anachronism for the long-term development of a commercial sector based on the production,

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processing and distribution of a perishable, bulk commodity such as milk. Mullins (1993, p. 3) suggested that these constraints, which are also seen in other coastal area of East Africa, can potentially be overcome by new technologies for disease control, feed production, cattle nutrition and milk processing. The eventual use of such technologies will, of course, depend on their technical performance and financial returns at farm level, as well as developments in other milk producing regions. To date, however, there are few indications that they are being used successfully to expand the commercial production of milk in the Dar es Salaam peri-urban zone or around other coastal cities in East Africa. In addition, any eventual improvements in the transportation systems linking the city with the rest of the country will likely favour higher altitude dairy production areas at the expense of local producers. Thus, it seems somewhat unlikely that peri-urban producers will to make a major contribution to a sustainable, locally based milk system for Dar es Salaam. It would also be short sighted to expect that the growth in the number of urban dairy cattle is a basis for a sustainable dairy industry. There is no question that urban-based dairy cattle presently make an important contribution to the city’s milk supply, and have been a critical element of the livelihood strategies of a part of the urban population. The boom in urban dairy production also illustrates a willingness and interest on the part of the middle class to respond to economic opportunity. However, this production system has only been able to thrive because of direct and indirect subsidies, and the unwillingness or inability of city officials to develop and enforce regulations restricting such activities on health and safely grounds. The future attractiveness of urban milk production will depend largely on the general economic climate, the success of government’s economic re-structuring programmes, and the city’s ability to enforce land-use and health and safety regulations (Sumberg, 1997). Positive movement in any or all of these areas will likely make urban dairy production significantly less attractive. The irony in the discussion of the Dar es Salaam milk system and the role that urban and peri-urban production should play within it is that there are areas within Tanzania in which milk can be produced more easily and efficiently than the hot humid coastal plain around Dar es Salaam. From an agro-ecological viewpoint, these higher, cooler and wetter areas share many characteristics with the highlands areas of Kenya where small-holder dairying is a widely acknowledged success. The challenge is to bridge the transportation gap between these potential production areas and the urban market, and investment along these lines is likely to yield much greater rewards to both producers and consumers than investment to stimulate dairy production in the peri-urban zone. In considering these alternatives it is important that the rhetoric about and current enthusiasm for sustainable cities, and the role that urban and peri-urban agriculture might play in supporting them, should not be allowed to divert policy and limited investment funds toward agricultural activities and systems which have little long-term comparative advantage. Ultimately, the very positive aspects of the new interest in sustainable urban systems should not be allowed to become hostage to a utopian vision of closed, self-sufficient cities, a vision which is at odds with strong economic and development trends such as globalisations and regional integration. REFERENCES Airey, J. (1995) Livestock and Meat Supply to Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. Ministry of Agriculture and FAO, Dar es Salaam. Auerbo¨ck, R. M., Guggenberger and C., Praz, P. (1993) Promotion of Fresh Milk Production in Dar es Salaam and Coast Regions: Project Proposal for Co-operation Between Tanzania and Austria. Austrovieh-Biomerx GmbH, Vienna. Becker, C. M., Hamer, A. M. and Morrison, A. R. (1994) Beyond ºrban Bias in Africa: ºrbanization in the Era of Structural Adjustment. James Currey, London.

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NOTES  This research was funded under a grant form the UK Department for International Development’s Livestock Production Research Progamme, however, DFID can accept no responsability for any information or views expressed.  The 1967 Arusha Declaration set Tanzania firmly on the path of socialist development. Practically this meant significant state intervention in all sectors of the national economy, and the development of a large parastatal sector and state bureaucracy. Economic performance through the 1970s and early 1980s was poor, with average GDP growth below the population growth rate since the mid-1970s (GDP for the periods 1967—1978 and 1878—1988 was 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively) (World Bank 1994). Starting in 1982 government embarked on a series of economic structural adjustment programmes which continue today. These programmes seek to liberalise the economy, and specific measures have included currency devaluation, reduced consumer subsidies, increased producer prices and privatisation of parastatal companies.  The national census assigns a geographical code (i.e., urban, rural or mixed) to each ward. These codes are meant to reflect a number of characteristics including population density, type of housing and level of infrastructure development. However, there are no hard and fast rules for classifying wards, and as many individuals are involved in the classification exercise, it is reasonable to expect considerable variation. Nevertheless, the ward codes provide one easily accessible means of separating wards in a way that may be relevant to the discussion of food production in and around urban areas.  The last complete livestock census in Tanzania was undertaken in 1984 but there is a specific note in the introduction of the report which cautions that the figures for Dar es Salaam are not likely to be accurate (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, 1986, p. 1). Since 1984 there have been a number of national sample surveys of the agricultural sector undertaken by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, but again the estimated livestock populations in urban areas are thought to be suspect (e.g., Statistics Unit, 1994). Thus, in order to estimate the population of grade dairy cattle in and around Dar es Salaam it was therefore necessary to rely on lists developed by the district veterinary officers during the last rinderpest vaccination campaign which took place during 1992. These lists indicate the total number of dairy cattle for each owner, and are thought to give a reasonably accurate picture for that moment in time. There is every reason to believe that grade cattle populations have increased since 1992, but no attempt was made to estimate these increases.  This network of retail kiosks was originally established by Coastal Dairies and subsequently taken over by Tanzania Dairies Ltd. (TDL).  There has long been concern about risks to public health posed by unsanitary conditions of milk production and sale in and around Dar es Salaam (Sumberg, 1997); a recent survey indicated that 30% of dairy cows tested around Dar es Salaam were positive for Brucellosis (Ramakhula, 1994).  It is interesting to note that Dar es Salaam was one of 11 cities selected in 1990 to participate in the UNCHS (Habitat) Sustainable Cities Programme through the Sustainable Dar es Salaam Project (Halla, 1994).