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Scénarios pour le solaire: Horizon 2000
Long Range Planning, Vol. 15, No. Printed in Great Britain
Book
0024-6301/82/0101154)6$02.00/0 Pergamon Press Ltd.
I, pp. 115 to 120, 1982
115
Reviews
Edited by Hurry Jones
of
Who Learns What? A Conceprual Description Capability and Learning in Technological Systems, M. F. CANTI EY and D. SAISAL, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (lY80), 31 pp. No price quoted (softback). This short pamphlet published by the International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis is an attempt to describe the learning processes underlying the well-known experience curve phenomenon. The authors then try to draw out some implications at a more global level than the individual product experience curve. The pamphlet, which is well documented and somewhat academic, only partially succeeds in these two objectives. There is an interesting discussion of the similarities and differences between technological systems and biological. The fundamental distinction made is that for technological systems the capability for memory and language enormously increases the potential for information storage and transmission. Examples of technological evaluation and learning include discussion of electric power transmission lines and fossil fuel electricity generating plants. The examples are used to suggest limitation to scale, but they do not address specifically the real cost and technological trade-offs. Most useful perhaps is the recognition that learning can take place at a number of different levels, e.g. within a company from operating at the unit level or individual piece of equipment up through the organization as a whole. The authors conceptualize this learning process but do not use their examples to illustrate their concept. This makes it somewhat difficult to appreciate the validity or otherwise of their ideas. While there is recognition of the need for incentive and effort to make the experience curve work, there is not much light thrown on how that effort should be organized and focused to realize maximum advantage. In many business situations the appearance of a lower cost more aggressive competitor is often an indication of failure to manage costs down, on experience curve. However, by the time the competitor emerges it is often too late to rectify the cost problem. For the businessman there is no discussion about the sort of industries whcrc experience curve analysis is useful and those industries where it is not. The authors make some obvious points, for example as a plant becomes more specialized and the management becomes more focused on achieving improvements so it is possible for them not to welcome or pursue any fundamental innovation that would disrupt their established work patterns.
The basic points of thinking about strategic capability in terms broader than the physical plant and financial resources should be obvious to managers. Stating that ‘the processes of learning are seen as central to the processes of survival and strategy’ and suggesting that a ‘technological dimension in strategic decision making’ is necessary the authors are not taking the art/science of strategic planning much further. The pamphlet may provide a stimulus for some more useful research into the actual mechanism oflearning; for this reason the more academically minded reader would find the pamphlet a helpful start. This is not, however, a particularly useful discussion for general managers or strategy planners. DAVIII HALL, Vice-President,
London
The Boston
Consulting
Group, (819)
Sctkarior pour le Solaire: Horizon 2000, P. A. BUKUES in The Series-Strategies pour L’&ergie, kdisud, Aix-en-Provance (1981), 199 pp. 70 Fr (softback). This work is a praiseworthy effort firstly in summarizing the present technological state of the art, the economics and the degree of use of solar energy in France, and secondly in its use of several of the methods of technology forecasting in developing ideas on trends up to the year 2000. It is probably one of the few efforts to study the likely development of solar energy systems by such multiple methods. Comparisons of the emerging forecasts are made with some U.S. and French official forecasts and with the French national objectives in this field. The study deploys such qualitative TF tools as relevance trees and morphology whilst learning curves and substitution methods are the basis of time-series extrapolations which provide quantitative forecasts on costs and projections of the extent of use up to the time horizon of the title. Most of the scenarios quoted are based on Delphi type forecasts. Cross impact methods appear to have been used, but these only implicitly. The first part of the book reviews the current position of the technology of Le Solaire, concentrating on three main systems-high and low temperature fluid heating with respect to the heating ofdomestic water, swimming pools and space, and photoelectric methods with respect to power stations of medium and high power i.e. below and above 500 kW.
116
Long
Range
Planning
Vol.
15
February
1982
The review stresses the importance of a national policy towards the development of solar systems through financial support by credits, taxes and research assistance. Likewise the social aspects are important in the design of domestic and other sorts of buildings. The whole development will obviously be affected by the growth in demand for energy and the rate at which other sources are developed and encouraged e.g. biomass systems. Very correctly good account is taken of the main environmental influences of politics, economics, society and technology.
Part 3 contains 37 papers by different authors based on their experiences of such changes in the U.S. Part 2, including especially a paper on selecting and implementing specific role options, could appeal to the international reader with a tolerance for U.S. ‘sociology-speak’. Part 1 gives a good insight into the pressures for change within the U.S. health care system. For those in the U.K., including the present government, intent on pluralizing the NHS and introducing an element of stimulating competition, there are some cautionary tales.
The middle section ofthe book deals with the methodology of the forecasts; the details of the setting up of an expert panel of 50 Delphi participants though there is no actual citation of the questions posed. Two Delphi rounds were involved for the times of 1985 and 2000. The outcome is a valuable set of scenarios; pessimistic and optimistic extrapolations and the Delphi approach. These are compared with official French forecasts. The Delphi results are analysed in considerable detail e.g. results from differing categories ofexpert panellists, and very pointed lists of likely influencing events are provided.
A principal contribution of this book within the U.K. is to provide in working detail a conspectus of the maladies and remedies applicable to U.S. health care. The differences and contrasts between the U.K. and U.S. systems constantly have to be recognized and are the stimulus to thought which could reward some tedious reading.
The conclusions of the work reported by Buigues are spelled out in considerable detail but the overall trend suggests that 45 per cent of new housing in France will have solar hot water and 25 per cent will have space heating. Costs per Watt-hour for power will still be high but in the ‘sunnier’ export markets they could be 60 per cent lower than in France. The export potential of French solar systems is taken very seriously. The photoelectric system appears to be one calling technological ‘break-throughs’, it being of interest that author quotes a theoretical efficiency limit of 22 per cent the time curve of the development of this system based silica photocells.
for the on on
The contribution that solar energy can make to the total energy use in France in the year 2000 will be between 5 and 20 per cent according as the various impacting factors play their part. The analysis gives the apportionment as between the contributions from various systems in MW or petrol equivalents. Overall the work is worthy of study by all interested in Le Solaire and the future of energy supplies, be their interests technical, economic or societal. It is useful not only as a practical application of the methods of technology forecasting but for providing a well reasoned set of scenarios for high, low and tendentious pictures of solar energy systems in the year 2000. In view of the French data publication merits translation H.
base used in this work, for wider audiences.
j0NF.S
The
Changing
the
(854)
Role
of the
Hospital:
Options
for
the Future,
American Hospital Association, Chicago (1980), $28.00 (members) and $35.00 (others), (softback).
322 pp.
This collection of papers was compiled by the Minnesota Hospital Association and emanates from a 1979 workshop on changes in hospital functions. It is presented in three parts: Why should a hospital consider changing its role? How can a hospital change its role effectively? What are some of the role options?
The differences include the conception of health care as an industry with its markets as opposed to a universal public service, pluralized ownership of facilities including state, municipal, non-profit and profit institutions, pluralized financing with state Medicare for the elderly, Medicaid for the indigent, and prepaid health care insurance on occupational, mutual and commercial bases. This relatively amorphous health care mammoth in principally plagued with oversupply ofacutc hospital facilities and of physicians. Thus the contributors are preoccupied with competition between adjacent hospitals and rivalries especially with state and federal regulators from whom, in particular, a ‘certificate of need’ has to be secured for significant increases in facilities which could cover some of the options discussed. Some persons may consider the Voluntary Effort as a stop legislation movement, but it is also a major force in the unification ofall participants in the health care industry. It is not easy to tear down barriers of jealousy and competitiveness that have grown among hospitals during many years but survival depends on working together. Government cannot do it all. Neither can business. But a third sector, the voluntary charitable sector, can help by serving as a galvanizing force that brings resources together to do really important and necessary things for the community. . Hospitals by reaching out and serving the unmet health needs can best ensure their survival into the 1980s and beyond. Shortages and weaknesses exist particularly in primary, emergency and long-term care and these are opportunities identified. Access to medical care is normally open to the free choice of the patient. Thus when falling sick, he selects generalist or specialist according to his judgment and is not as in the U.K., channelled by medical etiquette and NHS regulations through his medical practitioner. Thus other policy options include initiating or collaborating with existing Health Maintenance Organizations which in the main provide ambulatory medical care usually on a prepaid basis. The aim is to spread institution costs over a wider range of services and to secure for the hospital a contracted population for primary care. ‘The purpose of this book is to develop strong hospital leadership that is able to manage change for positive results it offers many alternatives to cxplorc.’ For an American readership, professionally involved, it could succeed. Certainly it appears a challenging and practical book with many experienced contributors worth a follow-up contact by
Book
0024-6301/82/0101154)6$02.00/0 Pergamon Press Ltd.
I, pp. 115 to 120, 1982
115
Reviews
Edited by Hurry Jones
of
Who Learns What? A Conceprual Description Capability and Learning in Technological Systems, M. F. CANTI EY and D. SAISAL, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (lY80), 31 pp. No price quoted (softback). This short pamphlet published by the International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis is an attempt to describe the learning processes underlying the well-known experience curve phenomenon. The authors then try to draw out some implications at a more global level than the individual product experience curve. The pamphlet, which is well documented and somewhat academic, only partially succeeds in these two objectives. There is an interesting discussion of the similarities and differences between technological systems and biological. The fundamental distinction made is that for technological systems the capability for memory and language enormously increases the potential for information storage and transmission. Examples of technological evaluation and learning include discussion of electric power transmission lines and fossil fuel electricity generating plants. The examples are used to suggest limitation to scale, but they do not address specifically the real cost and technological trade-offs. Most useful perhaps is the recognition that learning can take place at a number of different levels, e.g. within a company from operating at the unit level or individual piece of equipment up through the organization as a whole. The authors conceptualize this learning process but do not use their examples to illustrate their concept. This makes it somewhat difficult to appreciate the validity or otherwise of their ideas. While there is recognition of the need for incentive and effort to make the experience curve work, there is not much light thrown on how that effort should be organized and focused to realize maximum advantage. In many business situations the appearance of a lower cost more aggressive competitor is often an indication of failure to manage costs down, on experience curve. However, by the time the competitor emerges it is often too late to rectify the cost problem. For the businessman there is no discussion about the sort of industries whcrc experience curve analysis is useful and those industries where it is not. The authors make some obvious points, for example as a plant becomes more specialized and the management becomes more focused on achieving improvements so it is possible for them not to welcome or pursue any fundamental innovation that would disrupt their established work patterns.
The basic points of thinking about strategic capability in terms broader than the physical plant and financial resources should be obvious to managers. Stating that ‘the processes of learning are seen as central to the processes of survival and strategy’ and suggesting that a ‘technological dimension in strategic decision making’ is necessary the authors are not taking the art/science of strategic planning much further. The pamphlet may provide a stimulus for some more useful research into the actual mechanism oflearning; for this reason the more academically minded reader would find the pamphlet a helpful start. This is not, however, a particularly useful discussion for general managers or strategy planners. DAVIII HALL, Vice-President,
London
The Boston
Consulting
Group, (819)
Sctkarior pour le Solaire: Horizon 2000, P. A. BUKUES in The Series-Strategies pour L’&ergie, kdisud, Aix-en-Provance (1981), 199 pp. 70 Fr (softback). This work is a praiseworthy effort firstly in summarizing the present technological state of the art, the economics and the degree of use of solar energy in France, and secondly in its use of several of the methods of technology forecasting in developing ideas on trends up to the year 2000. It is probably one of the few efforts to study the likely development of solar energy systems by such multiple methods. Comparisons of the emerging forecasts are made with some U.S. and French official forecasts and with the French national objectives in this field. The study deploys such qualitative TF tools as relevance trees and morphology whilst learning curves and substitution methods are the basis of time-series extrapolations which provide quantitative forecasts on costs and projections of the extent of use up to the time horizon of the title. Most of the scenarios quoted are based on Delphi type forecasts. Cross impact methods appear to have been used, but these only implicitly. The first part of the book reviews the current position of the technology of Le Solaire, concentrating on three main systems-high and low temperature fluid heating with respect to the heating ofdomestic water, swimming pools and space, and photoelectric methods with respect to power stations of medium and high power i.e. below and above 500 kW.
116
Long
Range
Planning
Vol.
15
February
1982
The review stresses the importance of a national policy towards the development of solar systems through financial support by credits, taxes and research assistance. Likewise the social aspects are important in the design of domestic and other sorts of buildings. The whole development will obviously be affected by the growth in demand for energy and the rate at which other sources are developed and encouraged e.g. biomass systems. Very correctly good account is taken of the main environmental influences of politics, economics, society and technology.
Part 3 contains 37 papers by different authors based on their experiences of such changes in the U.S. Part 2, including especially a paper on selecting and implementing specific role options, could appeal to the international reader with a tolerance for U.S. ‘sociology-speak’. Part 1 gives a good insight into the pressures for change within the U.S. health care system. For those in the U.K., including the present government, intent on pluralizing the NHS and introducing an element of stimulating competition, there are some cautionary tales.
The middle section ofthe book deals with the methodology of the forecasts; the details of the setting up of an expert panel of 50 Delphi participants though there is no actual citation of the questions posed. Two Delphi rounds were involved for the times of 1985 and 2000. The outcome is a valuable set of scenarios; pessimistic and optimistic extrapolations and the Delphi approach. These are compared with official French forecasts. The Delphi results are analysed in considerable detail e.g. results from differing categories ofexpert panellists, and very pointed lists of likely influencing events are provided.
A principal contribution of this book within the U.K. is to provide in working detail a conspectus of the maladies and remedies applicable to U.S. health care. The differences and contrasts between the U.K. and U.S. systems constantly have to be recognized and are the stimulus to thought which could reward some tedious reading.
The conclusions of the work reported by Buigues are spelled out in considerable detail but the overall trend suggests that 45 per cent of new housing in France will have solar hot water and 25 per cent will have space heating. Costs per Watt-hour for power will still be high but in the ‘sunnier’ export markets they could be 60 per cent lower than in France. The export potential of French solar systems is taken very seriously. The photoelectric system appears to be one calling technological ‘break-throughs’, it being of interest that author quotes a theoretical efficiency limit of 22 per cent the time curve of the development of this system based silica photocells.
for the on on
The contribution that solar energy can make to the total energy use in France in the year 2000 will be between 5 and 20 per cent according as the various impacting factors play their part. The analysis gives the apportionment as between the contributions from various systems in MW or petrol equivalents. Overall the work is worthy of study by all interested in Le Solaire and the future of energy supplies, be their interests technical, economic or societal. It is useful not only as a practical application of the methods of technology forecasting but for providing a well reasoned set of scenarios for high, low and tendentious pictures of solar energy systems in the year 2000. In view of the French data publication merits translation H.
base used in this work, for wider audiences.
j0NF.S
The
Changing
the
(854)
Role
of the
Hospital:
Options
for
the Future,
American Hospital Association, Chicago (1980), $28.00 (members) and $35.00 (others), (softback).
322 pp.
This collection of papers was compiled by the Minnesota Hospital Association and emanates from a 1979 workshop on changes in hospital functions. It is presented in three parts: Why should a hospital consider changing its role? How can a hospital change its role effectively? What are some of the role options?
The differences include the conception of health care as an industry with its markets as opposed to a universal public service, pluralized ownership of facilities including state, municipal, non-profit and profit institutions, pluralized financing with state Medicare for the elderly, Medicaid for the indigent, and prepaid health care insurance on occupational, mutual and commercial bases. This relatively amorphous health care mammoth in principally plagued with oversupply ofacutc hospital facilities and of physicians. Thus the contributors are preoccupied with competition between adjacent hospitals and rivalries especially with state and federal regulators from whom, in particular, a ‘certificate of need’ has to be secured for significant increases in facilities which could cover some of the options discussed. Some persons may consider the Voluntary Effort as a stop legislation movement, but it is also a major force in the unification ofall participants in the health care industry. It is not easy to tear down barriers of jealousy and competitiveness that have grown among hospitals during many years but survival depends on working together. Government cannot do it all. Neither can business. But a third sector, the voluntary charitable sector, can help by serving as a galvanizing force that brings resources together to do really important and necessary things for the community. . Hospitals by reaching out and serving the unmet health needs can best ensure their survival into the 1980s and beyond. Shortages and weaknesses exist particularly in primary, emergency and long-term care and these are opportunities identified. Access to medical care is normally open to the free choice of the patient. Thus when falling sick, he selects generalist or specialist according to his judgment and is not as in the U.K., channelled by medical etiquette and NHS regulations through his medical practitioner. Thus other policy options include initiating or collaborating with existing Health Maintenance Organizations which in the main provide ambulatory medical care usually on a prepaid basis. The aim is to spread institution costs over a wider range of services and to secure for the hospital a contracted population for primary care. ‘The purpose of this book is to develop strong hospital leadership that is able to manage change for positive results it offers many alternatives to cxplorc.’ For an American readership, professionally involved, it could succeed. Certainly it appears a challenging and practical book with many experienced contributors worth a follow-up contact by